Scenarios and Challenges

The London Collaborative’s first phase of work looked at future scenarios and challenges facing London over the next twenty years. This work has played a significant part in designing our second phase of work, that is, working with public sector leaders to explore specific challenges and to build strategic capacity. You can find more information about our second phase and the workstreams chosen at our link Workstreams.

Our first report, The Collaborative City: Working Together to shape London’s Future, reflects our analysis and thinking about the key challenges for London and sets the scene for involving stakeholders in discussions about the most productive areas for collaboration.

The report was launched on Tuesday 18 March at the BT Centre by Councillor Merrick Cockell, Chair of London Councils and Local Government Minister John Healy MP. Geoff Mulgan and Tony Travers, director of the LSE Greater London Group, also spoke at the event.

The report is available here

The scenarios outlined in the report are available in full here

A background review of trend data is available here

Scenarios and Challenges

The scenarios were developed by the Young Foundation and OPM and were tested and refined by stakeholders and experts in a variety of workshops and seminars.

Futures Seminar

An initial seminar took place on 17 December 2007 bringing together leading experts to discuss our scenarios and futures work. Participants included Tony Travers, Michael Keith and Geoff Mulgan.

The discussion paper and reactions to it can be found here.

Audio files of the discussion can be downloaded for the various scenarios:

• Introduction
• Climate Change
• Demographics
• Housing
• Technological Innovation
• Lifestyles and Behaviours
• Social Cohesion
• Economy
• Wildcards
• Concluding Thoughts

Shared Interest Workshops

As part of the process of developing our thinking OPM held workshops on four key areas that are emerging as critical for the future of London.

1) Housing in the future - 31 January 2008
• Affordability and the balance of social and commercial housing
• Mixed communities – how to develop sustainable communities across the capital and within neighbourhoods?
• Future housing and social needs – meeting the needs of an ageing population who need and demand more personalised services and independent living?
• Pathways out of poverty for those “trapped” in social housing

2) Reducing our carbon footprint and the development of the city - 7 February 2008
• What will buildings look like in the future?
• Design values – meeting aspirations and protecting the environment
• Meeting emissions targets – can this be reconciled with growth?
• Liveability – the balance between desirable suburbs and a vibrant centre

3) Population growth and community cohesion - 14 February 2008
• What will be the impact of new communities arriving, and of an increasingly diverse workforce?
• What will be the impact on rapid population growth on relationships between communities, and on London’s culture?
• What do we mean by cohesion – integration? mutual tolerance? co-existence?
• What is the role of local authorities in developing social capital?

4) Young people’s engagement with power and decision making - 21 February 2008
• What does the future hold for our young people?
• What will connect them to wider civil society - government?
• What impact can we make on the pressures they experience?

Each workshop brought together top managers with a direct responsibility for each area from all of the boroughs, together with academic experts, and key figures from the GLA, Transport for London, LDA, Housing Corporation and other London- wide agencies. Each session identified the pan-London pressures that require a unified response, explored the impact that these pressures may have on the future of London, and begun to explore long term solutions.